2011 NFL Power Ratings and Game Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, February 7, 2012 - final ratings

Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by each Wednesday 
night during the season.  To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take 
the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for 
the home team.

These ratings are based on several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, 
and margin of victory in games.

NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 Green Bay Packers 15 2 0 56.8 2
2 New England Patriots 15 4 0 57.2 1
3 New Orleans Saints 14 4 0 57.3 3
4 San Francisco 49ers 14 4 0 56.1 4
5 Baltimore Ravens 13 5 0 55.2 5
6 New York Giants 13 7 0 55.2 7
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 12 5 0 54.3 6
8 Detroit Lions 10 7 0 53.3 8
9 Houston Texans 11 7 0 52.5 9
10 Philadelphia Eagles 8 8 0 52.6 10
11 Atlanta Falcons 10 7 0 51.9 11
12 San Diego Chargers 8 8 0 51.0 13
13 New York Jets 8 8 0 50.6 12
14 Chicago Bears 8 8 0 50.3 14
15 Dallas Cowboys 8 8 0 50.1 15
16 Cincinnati Bengals 9 8 0 49.9 16
17 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 49.8 17
18 Seattle Seahawks 7 9 0 49.9 18
19 Miami Dolphins 6 10 0 49.4 19
20 Arizona Cardinals 8 8 0 48.5 20
21 Oakland Raiders 8 8 0 48.0 22
22 Denver Broncos 9 9 0 48.0 21
23 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 47.6 23
24 Carolina Panthers 6 10 0 48.0 24
25 Kansas City Chiefs 7 9 0 46.8 25
26 Washington Redskins 5 11 0 46.1 26
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 45.4 27
28 Minnesota Vikings 3 13 0 45.1 28
29 Cleveland Browns 4 12 0 45.2 29
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12 0 43.0 30
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 14 0 42.9 31
32 St. Louis Rams 2 14 0 42.1 32


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking

NFL 2011
AFC EAST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 New England Patriots 15 4 0 57.2 598 393 26
13 New York Jets 8 8 0 50.6 377 363 9
19 Miami Dolphins 6 10 0 49.4 329 313 12
23 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 47.6 372 434 7

AFC NORTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 Baltimore Ravens 13 5 0 55.2 418 302 22
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 12 5 0 54.3 348 256 27
16 Cincinnati Bengals 9 8 0 49.9 354 354 21
29 Cleveland Browns 4 12 0 45.2 218 307 14

AFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
9 Houston Texans 11 7 0 52.5 425 308 31
17 Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 49.8 325 317 32
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 45.4 243 329 24
31 Indianapolis Colts 2 14 0 42.9 243 430 4

AFC WEST(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
12 San Diego Chargers 8 8 0 51.0 406 377 23
21 Oakland Raiders 8 8 0 48.0 359 433 20
22 Denver Broncos 9 9 0 48.0 348 458 6
25 Kansas City Chiefs 7 9 0 46.8 212 338 17


NFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 New York Giants 13 7 0 55.2 496 456 2
10 Philadelphia Eagles 8 8 0 52.6 396 328 11
15 Dallas Cowboys 8 8 0 50.1 369 347 13
26 Washington Redskins 5 11 0 46.1 288 367 10

NFC NORTH(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Green Bay Packers 15 2 0 56.8 580 396 29
8 Detroit Lions 10 7 0 53.3 502 432 5
14 Chicago Bears 8 8 0 50.3 353 341 15
28 Minnesota Vikings 3 13 0 45.1 340 449 8

NFC SOUTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 New Orleans Saints 14 4 0 57.3 624 403 30
11 Atlanta Falcons 10 7 0 51.9 404 374 16
24 Carolina Panthers 6 10 0 48.0 406 429 25
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12 0 43.0 287 494 3

NFC WEST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 San Francisco 49ers 14 4 0 56.1 433 281 28
18 Seattle Seahawks 7 9 0 49.9 321 315 18
20 Arizona Cardinals 8 8 0 48.5 312 348 19
32 St. Louis Rams 2 14 0 42.1 193 407 1


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, against the
results of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today rounded to the nearest whole number (no
1/2 point spreads here).


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons: 175 right, 92 wrong -  66% right, 39% right and within 7 points (103/267)
Jeff Sagarin:  170 right, 97 wrong -  64% right, 37% right and within 7 points (100/267)
Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 7 Simmons Sagarin Score
Cincinnati (9-7) at Houston (10-6) (4:30) H by 5 H by 4 H 31-10
Detroit (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3) (8:00) N by 6 N by 6 N 45-28

SUNDAY JANUARY 8 Simmons Sagarin Score
Atlanta (10-6) at NY Giants (9-7) (1:00) N by 1 N by 1 N 24-2
Pittsburgh (12-4) at Denver (8-8) (4:30) P by 4 P by 5 D 29-23(ot)
For the week: 3/4 3/4
Within 7 points: 0/4 0/4


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 14 Simmons Sagarin Score
New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3) (4:30) S by 2 S by 2 S 36-32
Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3) (8:00) N by 11 N by 12 N 45-10

SUNDAY JANUARY 15 Simmons Sagarin Score
Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4) (1:00) B by 5 B by 5 B 20-13
NY Giants (10-7) at Green Bay (15-1) (4:30) G by 9 G by 10 N 37-20
For the week: 3/4 3/4
Within 7 points: 2/4 2/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 22 Simmons Sagarin Score
Baltimore (13-4) at New England (14-3) (3:00) N by 5 N by 6 N 23-20
NY Giants (11-7) at San Francisco (14-3) (6:30) S by 6 S by 6 N 20-17(ot)
For the week: 1/2 1/2
Within 7 points: 1/2 1/2


Super Bowl XLVI - at Indianapolis, IN
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5 Simmons Sagarin Score
NY Giants (12-7) vs. New England (15-3) (6:30) NE by 3 NE by 3 NY 21-17
For the week: 0/1 0/1
Within 7 points: 0/1 0/1