2013 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, February 4, 2014 - final ratings

Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by each Wednesday 
night during the season.  To determine the approximate point spread for a game, simply take 
the difference between the power ratings of the two teams in question and add 3 points for 
the home team.

These ratings are based on several factors, including win-loss record, schedule strength, 
and margin of victory in games.

NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 Seattle Seahawks 16 3 0 61.7 1
2 San Francisco 49ers 14 5 0 58.5 3
3 Denver Broncos 15 4 0 57.7 2
4 New Orleans Saints 12 6 0 56.4 4
5 New England Patriots 13 5 0 55.8 5
6 Carolina Panthers 12 5 0 55.1 6
7 Arizona Cardinals 10 6 0 54.8 7
8 Kansas City Chiefs 11 6 0 53.8 9
9 San Diego Chargers 10 8 0 53.7 8
10 Indianapolis Colts 12 6 0 53.2 10
11 Cincinnati Bengals 11 6 0 52.6 11
12 Philadelphia Eagles 10 7 0 51.3 12
13 St. Louis Rams 7 9 0 50.9 13
14 Dallas Cowboys 8 8 0 49.6 14
15 Miami Dolphins 8 8 0 49.4 15
16 Pittsburgh Steelers 8 8 0 49.3 16
17 Tennessee Titans 7 9 0 48.9 17
18 Green Bay Packers 8 8 1 48.7 18
19 Baltimore Ravens 8 8 0 48.4 19
20 Chicago Bears 8 8 0 48.1 20
21 Detroit Lions 7 9 0 48.1 21
22 New York Giants 7 9 0 47.5 22
23 New York Jets 8 8 0 47.4 23
24 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 47.0 24
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12 0 46.3 25
26 Atlanta Falcons 4 12 0 46.2 26
27 Minnesota Vikings 5 10 1 45.7 27
28 Cleveland Browns 4 12 0 43.4 28
29 Oakland Raiders 4 12 0 43.3 29
30 Houston Texans 2 14 0 42.6 30
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 12 0 42.4 31
32 Washington Redskins 3 13 0 42.2 32


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2013
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
5 New England Patriots 13 5 0 55.8 503 386 15
15 Miami Dolphins 8 8 0 49.4 317 335 16
23 New York Jets 8 8 0 47.4 290 387 21
24 Buffalo Bills 6 10 0 47.0 339 388 20

AFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
11 Cincinnati Bengals 11 6 0 52.6 440 332 28
16 Pittsburgh Steelers 8 8 0 49.3 379 370 32
19 Baltimore Ravens 8 8 0 48.4 320 352 29
28 Cleveland Browns 4 12 0 43.4 308 406 26

AFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
10 Indianapolis Colts 12 6 0 53.2 458 423 10
17 Tennessee Titans 7 9 0 48.9 362 381 14
30 Houston Texans 2 14 0 42.6 276 428 8
31 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 12 0 42.4 247 449 12

AFC WEST(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
3 Denver Broncos 15 4 0 57.7 664 475 13
8 Kansas City Chiefs 11 6 0 53.8 474 350 23
9 San Diego Chargers 10 8 0 53.7 440 382 11
29 Oakland Raiders 4 12 0 43.3 322 453 17


NFC EAST(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
12 Philadelphia Eagles 10 7 0 51.3 466 408 25
14 Dallas Cowboys 8 8 0 49.6 439 432 24
22 New York Giants 7 9 0 47.5 294 383 18
32 Washington Redskins 3 13 0 42.2 334 478 19

NFC NORTH(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
18 Green Bay Packers 8 8 1 48.7 437 451 27
20 Chicago Bears 8 8 0 48.1 445 478 30
21 Detroit Lions 7 9 0 48.1 395 376 31
27 Minnesota Vikings 5 10 1 45.7 391 480 22

NFC SOUTH(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 New Orleans Saints 12 6 0 56.4 455 351 2
6 Carolina Panthers 12 5 0 55.1 376 264 9
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12 0 46.3 288 389 3
26 Atlanta Falcons 4 12 0 46.2 353 443 7

NFC WEST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Seattle Seahawks 16 3 0 61.7 506 271 5
2 San Francisco 49ers 14 5 0 58.5 469 325 1
7 Arizona Cardinals 10 6 0 54.8 379 324 6
13 St. Louis Rams 7 9 0 50.9 348 364 4


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, against the
results of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today rounded to the nearest whole number (no
1/2 point spreads here).

2013 SEASON:
Brian Simmons: 168 right,  99 wrong - 63% right, 35% right and within 7 points (93/267)
Jeff Sagarin:  165 right, 102 wrong - 62% right, 36% right and within 7 points (96/267)

Playoff Summary

Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 4 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Kansas City (11-5) at Indianapolis (11-5) (4:35) I by 3 I by 5 K by 1 I 45-44
New Orleans (11-5) at Philadelphia (10-6) (8:10) N by 1 N by 1 P by 3 N 26-24
SUNDAY JANUARY 5 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
San Diego (9-7) at Cincinnati (11-5) (1:05) C by 6 C by 6 C by 7 S 27-10
San Francisco (12-4) at Green Bay (8-7-1) (4:40) S by 5 S by 9 S by 3 S 23-20
For the week: 3/4 3/4 1/4
Within 7 points: 3/4 3/4 1/4


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 11 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
New Orleans (12-5) at Seattle (13-3) (4:35) S by 6 S by 8 S by 9 S 23-15
Indianapolis (12-5) at New England (12-4) (8:15) N by 4 N by 3 N by 7 N 43-22
SUNDAY JANUARY 12 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
San Francisco (13-4) at Carolina (12-4) (1:05) C by 2 C by 2 S by 2 S 23-10
San Diego (10-7) at Denver (13-3) (4:40) D by 8 D by 6 D by 8 D 24-17
For the week: 3/4 3/4 4/4
Within 7 points: 2/4 2/4 2/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 19 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
AFC: New England (13-4) at Denver (14-3) (3:00) D by 5 D by 7 D by 5 D 26-16
NFC: San Francisco (14-4) at Seattle (14-3) (6:30) Sea by 4 Sea by 6 Sea by 4 Sea 23-17
For the week: 2/2 2/2 2/2
Within 7 points: 2/2 2/2 2/2


Super Bowl XLVIII - at New York, NY
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 2 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Denver (15-3) vs. Seattle (15-3) Even - S S by 2 D by 2 S 43-8
For the week: 1/1 1/1 0/1
Within 7 points: 0/1 0/1 0/1