2015 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions

Last updated: Tuesday, February 9, 2016 - final ratings

Welcome to my pro football power ratings.  I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season.  To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.

These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.

NFL Team Rankings

LW = Last week's ranking

Team W L T Rating LW
1 Carolina Panthers 17 2 0 58.2 1
2 Denver Broncos 15 4 0 57.6 5
3 Kansas City Chiefs 12 6 0 56.6 3
4 Seattle Seahawks 11 7 0 56.3 2
5 Arizona Cardinals 14 4 0 56.2 4
6 New England Patriots 13 5 0 56.1 6
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 7 0 55.3 8
8 Cincinnati Bengals 12 5 0 55.2 7
9 Green Bay Packers 11 7 0 55.1 9
10 Minnesota Vikings 11 6 0 54.2 10
11 New York Jets 10 6 0 51.2 11
12 Buffalo Bills 8 8 0 50.1 12
13 Houston Texans 9 8 0 49.5 13
14 Detroit Lions 7 9 0 49.4 14
15 Oakland Raiders 7 9 0 49.1 17
16 St. Louis Rams 7 9 0 49.1 16
17 Washington Redskins 9 8 0 49.0 15
18 Chicago Bears 6 10 0 48.8 19
19 Atlanta Falcons 8 8 0 48.5 18
20 Indianapolis Colts 8 8 0 47.7 21
21 Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 0 47.6 20
22 New York Giants 6 10 0 47.4 22
23 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 46.9 23
24 Baltimore Ravens 5 11 0 46.7 24
25 San Diego Chargers 4 12 0 46.6 25
26 Miami Dolphins 6 10 0 45.7 26
27 San Francisco 49ers 5 11 0 45.4 28
28 Dallas Cowboys 4 12 0 45.4 27
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 10 0 45.1 29
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 44.4 30
31 Cleveland Browns 3 13 0 43.8 31
32 Tennessee Titans 3 13 0 41.7 32


NFL Teams By Division

PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest).  SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.

NFL 2015
AFC EAST(4) W L T Rating PF PA SS
6 New England Patriots 13 5 0 56.1 510 355 17
11 New York Jets 10 6 0 51.2 387 314 32
12 Buffalo Bills 8 8 0 50.1 379 359 23
26 Miami Dolphins 6 10 0 45.7 310 389 26

AFC NORTH(5) W L T Rating PF PA SS
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 7 0 55.3 457 358 2
8 Cincinnati Bengals 12 5 0 55.2 435 297 16
24 Baltimore Ravens 5 11 0 46.7 328 401 15
31 Cleveland Browns 3 13 0 43.8 278 432 10

AFC SOUTH(8) W L T Rating PF PA SS
13 Houston Texans 9 8 0 49.5 339 343 21
20 Indianapolis Colts 8 8 0 47.7 333 408 25
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 44.4 376 448 30
32 Tennessee Titans 3 13 0 41.7 299 423 28

AFC WEST(1) W L T Rating PF PA SS
2 Denver Broncos 15 4 0 57.6 422 340 5
3 Kansas City Chiefs 12 6 0 56.6 455 314 4
15 Oakland Raiders 7 9 0 49.1 359 399 13
25 San Diego Chargers 4 12 0 46.6 320 398 8


NFC EAST(7) W L T Rating PF PA SS
17 Washington Redskins 9 8 0 49.0 406 414 24
21 Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 0 47.6 377 430 20
22 New York Giants 6 10 0 47.4 420 442 22
28 Dallas Cowboys 4 12 0 45.4 275 374 18

NFC NORTH(2) W L T Rating PF PA SS
9 Green Bay Packers 11 7 0 55.1 423 367 3
10 Minnesota Vikings 11 6 0 54.2 374 312 12
14 Detroit Lions 7 9 0 49.4 358 400 11
18 Chicago Bears 6 10 0 48.8 335 397 6

NFC SOUTH(6) W L T Rating PF PA SS
1 Carolina Panthers 17 2 0 58.2 590 371 19
19 Atlanta Falcons 8 8 0 48.5 339 345 31
23 New Orleans Saints 7 9 0 46.9 408 476 27
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 10 0 45.1 342 417 29

NFC WEST(3) W L T Rating PF PA SS
4 Seattle Seahawks 11 7 0 56.3 457 317 1
5 Arizona Cardinals 14 4 0 56.2 530 382 9
16 St. Louis Rams 7 9 0 49.1 280 330 14
27 San Francisco 49ers 5 11 0 45.4 238 387 7


NFL Football Predictions


In this section I compare my results at picking games this season, against the
results of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today rounded to the nearest whole number (no
1/2 point spreads here).  The link to Sagarin website is provided here:
http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm


PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:

SEASON TO DATE:
Brian Simmons: 170 right, 97 wrong - 64% right, 36% right and within 7 points (96/267)
Jeff Sagarin:  171 right, 96 wrong - 64% right, 37% right and within 7 points (99/267)

Playoff Summary

Playoffs - Wild Card Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 9 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Kansas City (11-5) at Houston (9-7) (4:35) K by 2 K by 5 K by 3 K 30-0
Pittsburgh (10-6) at Cincinnati (12-4) (8:15) C by 5 C by 4 P by 2 P 18-16

SUNDAY JANUARY 10 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Seattle (10-6) at Minnesota (11-5) (1:05) M by 1 S by 3 S by 5 S 10-9
Green Bay (10-6) at Washington (9-7) (4:40) Even - G G by 4 W by 1 G 35-18
Correct winners: 2/4 3/4 3/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 0/4 1/4 2/4


Playoffs - Divisional Round
SATURDAY JANUARY 16 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Kansas City (12-5) at New England (12-4) (4:35) N by 2 Even - K N by 6 N 27-20
Green Bay (11-6) at Arizona (13-3) (8:15) A by 6 A by 4 A by 7 A 26-20(ot)

SUNDAY JANUARY 17 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Seattle (11-6) at Carolina (15-1) (1:05) C by 4 Even - S C by 3 C 31-24
Pittsburgh (11-6) at Denver (12-4) (4:40) D by 3 D by 2 D by 7 D 23-16
Correct winners: 4/4 2/4 4/4
Correct winner and within 7 points: 4/4 2/4 4/4


Playoffs - Conference Championships
SUNDAY JANUARY 24 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
New England (13-4) at Denver (13-4) (3:05) D by 2 D by 3 N by 3 D 20-18
Arizona (14-3) at Carolina (16-1) (6:40) C by 4 C by 1 C by 3 C 49-15
Correct winners: 2/2 2/2 1/2
Correct winner and within 7 points: 1/2 1/2 0/2


Super Bowl 50 - at Santa Clara, CA
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 Simmons Sagarin Line Score
Carolina (17-1) vs. Denver (14-4) (6:30) C by 4 C by 2 C by 5 D 24-10
Correct winners: 0/1 0/1 0/1
Correct winner and within 7 points: 0/1 0/1 0/1