2021 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions
Last updated: Tuesday, February 15, 2022 - final ratings
Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.
These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.
NFL Football Predictions
In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this
week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals.
PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES:
SEASON TO DATE: 164 right, 120 wrong - 58% right, 31% right and within 7 points (89/284)
WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1 - 6 right, 10 wrong - 38% right, 19% right and within 7 points (3/16)
Week 2 - 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 50% right and within 7 points (8/16)
Week 3 - 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right, 25% right and within 7 points (4/16)
Week 4 - 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 38% right and within 7 points (6/16)
Week 5 - 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)
Week 6 - 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14)
Week 7 - 8 right, 5 wrong - 62% right, 31% right and within 7 points (4/13)
Week 8 - 7 right, 8 wrong - 47% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15)
Week 9 - 5 right, 9 wrong - 36% right, 29% right and within 7 points (4/14)
Week 10 - 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right, 15% right and within 7 points (2/13)
Week 11 - 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 20% right and within 7 points (3/15)
Week 12 - 8 right, 7 wrong - 53% right, 33% right and within 7 points (5/15)
Week 13 - 7 right, 7 wrong - 50% right, 21% right and within 7 points (3/14)
Week 14 - 11 right, 3 wrong - 79% right, 50% right and within 7 points (7/14)
Week 15 - 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right, 44% right and within 7 points (7/16)
Week 16 - 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right, 38% right and within 7 points (6/16)
Week 17 - 13 right, 3 wrong - 81% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)
Week 18 - 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right, 31% right and within 7 points (5/16)
Playoffs:
Wild Card: 5 right, 1 wrong - 83% right, 17% right and within 7 points (1/6)
Divisional: 1 right, 3 wrong - 25% right, 25% right and within 7 points (1/4)
Conference: 1 right, 1 wrong - 50% right, 50% right and within 7 points (1/2)
Super Bowl: 1 right, 0 wrong - 100% right, 100% right and within 7 points (1/1)
Playoff Summary
| Playoffs - Wild Card Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 15 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Las Vegas (10-7) at Cincinnati (10-7) (4:30) | C by 6 | C 26-19
|
| New England (10-7) at Buffalo (11-6) (8:15) | B by 5 | B 47-17
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 16 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Philadelphia (9-8) at Tampa Bay (13-4) (1:00) | T by 8 | T 31-15
|
| San Francisco (10-7) at Dallas (12-5) (4:30) | D by 6 | S 23-17
|
| Pittsburgh (9-7-1) at Kansas City (12-5) (8:15) | K by 9 | K 42-21
|
| | |
|
| MONDAY JANUARY 17 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Arizona (11-6) at LA Rams (12-5) (8:15) | L by 4 | L 34-11
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 5/6 |
|
| Correct winner and within 7 points: | 1/6 |
|
| | |
|
| | |
|
| Playoffs - Divisional Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 22 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Cincinnati (11-7) at Tennessee (12-5) (4:30) | T by 4 | C 19-16
|
| San Francisco (11-7) at Green Bay (13-4) (8:15) | G by 4 | S 13-10
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 23 | PICK | SCORE
|
| LA Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay (14-4) (3:00) | T by 4 | L 30-27
|
| Buffalo (12-6) at Kansas City (13-5) (6:30) | K by 3 | K 42-36(ot)
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 1/4 |
|
| Correct winner and within 7 points: | 1/4 |
|
| | |
|
| | |
|
| Playoffs - Conference Championships | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 30 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC - Cincinnati (12-7) at Kansas City (14-5) (3:00) | K by 6 | C 27-24(ot)
|
| NFC - San Francisco (12-7) at LA Rams (14-5) (6:30) | L by 5 | L 20-17
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 1/2 |
|
| Correct winner and within 7 points: | 1/2 |
|
| | |
|
| | |
|
| Super Bowl LVI - at Inglewood, CA | |
|
| SUNDAY FEBRUARY 13 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Cincinnati (13-7) at LA Rams (15-5) (6:30) | L by 6 | L 23-20
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 1/1 |
|
| Correct winner and within 7 points: | 1/1 |
|
NFL Team Rankings
| | Team | W | L | T | RATING
|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 16 | 5 | 0 | 56.8
|
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 56.0
|
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 | 5 | 0 | 55.7
|
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.4
|
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 12 | 8 | 0 | 54.9
|
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 13 | 5 | 0 | 54.7
|
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 54.7
|
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 13 | 8 | 0 | 53.7
|
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 11 | 7 | 0 | 53.4
|
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.7
|
| 11 | New England Patriots | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.7
|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 52.1
|
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5
|
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 10 | 0 | 50.9
|
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6
|
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 9 | 0 | 50.5
|
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.3
|
| 18 | Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.0
|
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.4
|
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 8 | 1 | 49.4
|
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 | 8 | 0 | 49.1
|
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 9 | 8 | 0 | 48.7
|
| 23 | Denver Broncos | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.4
|
| 24 | Washington Football | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.4
|
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.8
|
| 26 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.2
|
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 45.1
|
| 28 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 13 | 1 | 44.0
|
| 29 | New York Giants | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.5
|
| 30 | Houston Texans | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.9
|
| 31 | New York Jets | 4 | 13 | 0 | 41.8
|
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 14 | 0 | 41.6
|
NFL Teams By Division
PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.
| | NFL 2021 | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC EAST(4) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 56.0 | 566 | 348 | 30
|
| 11 | New England Patriots | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.7 | 479 | 350 | 26
|
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 9 | 8 | 0 | 48.7 | 341 | 373 | 32
|
| 31 | New York Jets | 4 | 13 | 0 | 41.8 | 310 | 504 | 22
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC NORTH(3) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 13 | 8 | 0 | 53.7 | 552 | 458 | 12
|
| 18 | Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.0 | 387 | 392 | 13
|
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.4 | 349 | 371 | 18
|
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 8 | 1 | 49.4 | 364 | 440 | 3
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC SOUTH(8) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.7 | 435 | 373 | 27
|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 52.1 | 451 | 365 | 28
|
| 30 | Houston Texans | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.9 | 280 | 451 | 19
|
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 14 | 0 | 41.6 | 253 | 457 | 14
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC WEST(2) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.4 | 588 | 448 | 16
|
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6 | 474 | 459 | 23
|
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 | 8 | 0 | 49.1 | 393 | 465 | 11
|
| 23 | Denver Broncos | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.4 | 335 | 322 | 31
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC EAST(6) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 54.7 | 547 | 381 | 25
|
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 9 | 0 | 50.5 | 459 | 416 | 21
|
| 24 | Washington Football | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.4 | 335 | 434 | 8
|
| 29 | New York Giants | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.5 | 258 | 416 | 10
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC NORTH(7) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 13 | 5 | 0 | 54.7 | 460 | 384 | 15
|
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.3 | 425 | 426 | 9
|
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.8 | 311 | 407 | 5
|
| 28 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 13 | 1 | 44.0 | 325 | 467 | 4
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC SOUTH(5) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 | 5 | 0 | 55.7 | 569 | 398 | 29
|
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5 | 364 | 335 | 17
|
| 26 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.2 | 304 | 404 | 20
|
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 45.1 | 313 | 459 | 24
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC WEST(1) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 16 | 5 | 0 | 56.8 | 567 | 447 | 6
|
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 12 | 8 | 0 | 54.9 | 480 | 412 | 1
|
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 11 | 7 | 0 | 53.4 | 459 | 400 | 2
|
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 10 | 0 | 50.9 | 395 | 366 | 7
|