2023 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions
Last updated: Monday, February 12, 2024 - final ratings
Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.
These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.
NFL Football Predictions
In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this
week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals.
PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES/PICKING WINNER AND MARGIN WITHIN 8 POINTS:
SEASON TO DATE: 172 right, 113 wrong - 60% right; 38% right and within 8 points (109/285)
WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1: 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16)
Week 2: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16)
Week 3: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16)
Week 4: 7 right, 9 wrong - 44% right; 25% right and within 8 points (4/16)
Week 5: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14)
Week 6: 11 right, 4 wrong - 73% right; 53% right and within 8 points (8/15)
Week 7: 7 right, 6 wrong - 54% right; 31% right and within 8 points (4/13)
Week 8: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 9: 12 right, 2 wrong - 86% right; 50% right and within 8 points (7/14)
Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14)
Week 11: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14)
Week 12: 10 right, 6 wrong - 63% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 13: 6 right, 7 wrong - 46% right; 38% right and within 8 points (5/13)
Week 14: 7 right, 8 wrong - 47% right; 20% right and within 8 points (3/15)
Week 15: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16)
Week 16: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 17: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 18: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16)
Wild Card: 4 right, 2 wrong - 67% right; 17% right and within 8 points (1/6)
Divisional: 3 right, 1 wrong - 75% right; 50% right and within 8 points (2/4)
Conference: 1 right, 1 wrong - 50% right; 50% right and within 8 points (1/2)
Super Bowl: 0 right, 1 wrong - 0% right, 0% right and within 8 points (0/1)
Playoff Summary
| Playoffs - Wild Card Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 13 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #5 Cleveland (11-6) at #4 Houston (10-7) (4:30) | Even - C | H 45-14
|
| AFC: #6 Miami (11-6) at #3 Kansas City (11-6) (8:00) | K by 4 | K 26-7
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 14 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #7 Pittsburgh (10-7) at #2 Buffalo (11-6) (1:00) | B by 5 | B 31-17
|
| NFC: #7 Green Bay (9-8) at #2 Dallas (12-5) (4:30) | D by 7 | G 48-32
|
| NFC: #6 LA Rams (10-7) at #3 Detroit (12-5) (8:00) | D by 5 | D 24-23
|
| | |
|
| MONDAY JANUARY 15 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #5 Philadelphia (11-6) at #4 Tampa Bay (9-8) (8:15) | T by 2 | T 32-9
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 4/6 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 1/6 |
|
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| Playoffs - Divisional Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 20 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #4 Houston (11-7) at #1 Baltimore (13-4) (4:30) | B by 9 | B 34-10
|
| NFC: #7 Green Bay (9-8) at #1 San Francisco (12-5) (8:15) | S by 7 | S 24-21
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 21 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #4 Tampa Bay (10-8) at #3 Detroit (13-5) (3:00) | D by 6 | D 31-23
|
| AFC: #3 Kansas City (12-6) at #2 Buffalo (12-6) (6:30) | B by 3 | K 27-24
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 3/4 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 2/4 |
|
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|
| Playoffs - Conference Championships | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 28 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC - #3 Kansas City (13-6) at #1 Baltimore (14-4) (3:00) | B by 7 | K 17-10
|
| NFC - #3 Detroit (14-5) at #1 San Francisco (13-5) (6:30) | S by 5 | S 34-31
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 1/2 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 1/2 |
|
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|
| Super Bowl LVIII - at Las Vegas, NV | |
|
| SUNDAY FEBRUARY 11 | PICK | SCORE
|
| San Francisco (14-5) vs. Kansas City (14-6) (6:30) | Even - S | K 25-22(ot)
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 0/1 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 0/1 |
|
NFL Team Rankings
| | Team | W | L | T | RATING
|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 6 | 0 | 57.6
|
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.5
|
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 6 | 0 | 56.9
|
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.3
|
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 54.0
|
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 53.4
|
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.6
|
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.3
|
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.6
|
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.5
|
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5
|
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.3
|
| 13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.3
|
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2
|
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.8
|
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6
|
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 7 | 0 | 50.1
|
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.8
|
| 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.6
|
| 20 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.5
|
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.1
|
| 22 | Denver Broncos | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.0
|
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.7
|
| 24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.6
|
| 25 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.9
|
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.2
|
| 27 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.1
|
| 28 | New York Giants | 6 | 11 | 0 | 45.7
|
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.8
|
| 30 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.9
|
| 31 | Washington Commanders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.4
|
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 15 | 0 | 41.4
|
NFL Teams By Division
PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.
| | NFL 2023 | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC EAST(6) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 7 | 0 | 54.0 | 506 | 355 | 28
|
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.5 | 503 | 417 | 25
|
| 27 | New York Jets | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.1 | 268 | 355 | 29
|
| 30 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.9 | 236 | 366 | 24
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC NORTH(1) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 5 | 0 | 57.5 | 527 | 307 | 12
|
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.5 | 366 | 384 | 1
|
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | 11 | 7 | 0 | 51.3 | 410 | 407 | 7
|
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50.8 | 321 | 355 | 3
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC SOUTH(5) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.3 | 432 | 401 | 22
|
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.2 | 377 | 371 | 13
|
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.1 | 396 | 415 | 27
|
| 25 | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 11 | 0 | 46.9 | 305 | 367 | 19
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC WEST(4) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 6 | 0 | 57.6 | 466 | 357 | 2
|
| 20 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.5 | 332 | 331 | 18
|
| 22 | Denver Broncos | 8 | 9 | 0 | 49.0 | 357 | 413 | 17
|
| 24 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.6 | 346 | 398 | 10
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC EAST(7) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 0 | 52.6 | 541 | 363 | 31
|
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 7 | 0 | 50.1 | 442 | 460 | 20
|
| 28 | New York Giants | 6 | 11 | 0 | 45.7 | 266 | 407 | 23
|
| 31 | Washington Commanders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 42.4 | 329 | 518 | 26
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC NORTH(2) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 14 | 6 | 0 | 55.3 | 547 | 475 | 9
|
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 53.4 | 452 | 406 | 4
|
| 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 10 | 0 | 49.6 | 344 | 362 | 6
|
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 10 | 0 | 48.7 | 360 | 379 | 21
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC SOUTH(8) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 51.6 | 403 | 365 | 16
|
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 9 | 8 | 0 | 50.6 | 402 | 327 | 30
|
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 0 | 46.2 | 321 | 373 | 32
|
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 15 | 0 | 41.4 | 236 | 416 | 14
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC WEST(3) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 6 | 0 | 56.9 | 571 | 375 | 11
|
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.3 | 427 | 401 | 5
|
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 8 | 0 | 49.8 | 364 | 402 | 15
|
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.8 | 330 | 455 | 8
|