2024 NFL Power Ratings and Predictions
Last updated: Tuesday, February 11, 2025 - final ratings
Welcome to my pro football power ratings. I will be updating this page by
each Wednesday night during the season. To determine the approximate point
spread for a game, simply take the difference between the power ratings of the
two teams in question and add 3 points for the home team.
These ratings are based on a mathematical formula including several factors,
including win-loss record, schedule strength, and margin of victory in games.
NFL Football Predictions
In this section I display my results at picking games this season, rounded
to the nearest whole number (no 1/2 point spreads here) and present this
week's picks. Tie games are thrown out and don't count in the picks totals.
PICKING WINNERS IN GAMES/PICKING WINNER AND MARGIN WITHIN 8 POINTS:
SEASON TO DATE: 196 right, 89 wrong - 69% right; 40% right and within 8 points (113/285)
WEEK BY WEEK:
Week 1: 13 right, 3 wrong - 81% right; 63% right and within 8 points (10/16)
Week 2: 8 right, 8 wrong - 50% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 3: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 25% right and within 8 points (4/16)
Week 4: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 5: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 43% right and within 8 points (6/14)
Week 6: 9 right, 5 wrong - 64% right; 21% right and within 8 points (3/14)
Week 7: 10 right, 5 wrong - 67% right; 27% right and within 8 points (4/15)
Week 8: 11 right, 5 wrong - 69% right; 50% right and within 8 points (8/16)
Week 9: 12 right, 3 wrong - 80% right; 33% right and within 8 points (5/15)
Week 10: 8 right, 6 wrong - 57% right; 36% right and within 8 points (5/14)
Week 11: 12 right, 2 wrong - 86% right; 50% right and within 8 points (7/14)
Week 12: 8 right, 5 wrong - 62% right; 15% right and within 8 points (2/13)
Week 13: 14 right, 2 wrong - 88% right; 56% right and within 8 points (9/16)
Week 14: 9 right, 4 wrong - 69% right; 46% right and within 8 points (6/13)
Week 15: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 16: 12 right, 4 wrong - 75% right; 44% right and within 8 points (7/16)
Week 17: 13 right, 3 wrong - 81% right; 38% right and within 8 points (6/16)
Week 18: 9 right, 7 wrong - 56% right; 31% right and within 8 points (5/16)
Playoffs:
Wild Card: 3 right, 3 wrong - 50% right; 33% right and within 8 points (2/6)
Divisional: 3 right, 1 wrong - 75% right; 75% right and within 8 points (3/4)
Conference: 2 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 50% right and within 8 points (1/2)
Super Bowl: 1 right, 0 wrong - 100% right; 0% right and within 8 points (0/1)
Playoff Summary
| Playoffs - Wild Card Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 11 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #5 LA Chargers (11-6) at #4 Houston (10-7) (4:30) | Even - L | H 32-12
|
| AFC: #6 Pittsburgh (10-7) at #3 Baltimore (12-5) (8:00) | B by 8 | B 28-14
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 12 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #7 Denver (10-7) at #2 Buffalo (13-4) (1:00) | B by 5 | B 31-7
|
| NFC: #7 Green Bay (11-6) at #2 Philadelphia (14-3) (4:30) | P by 5 | P 22-10
|
| NFC: #6 Washington (12-5) at #3 Tampa Bay (10-7) (8:00) | T by 4 | W 23-20
|
| | |
|
| MONDAY JANUARY 13 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #5 Minnesota (14-3) vs. #4 LA Rams (10-7) (at Glendale, AZ) (8:15) | M by 5 | L 27-9
|
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|
| Correct winners: | 3/6 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 2/6 |
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| Playoffs - Divisional Round | |
|
| SATURDAY JANUARY 18 | PICK | SCORE
|
| AFC: #4 Houston (11-7) at #1 Kansas City (15-2) (4:30) | K by 7 | K 23-14
|
| NFC: #6 Washington (13-5) at #1 Detroit (15-2) (8:00) | D by 9 | W 45-31
|
| | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 19 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC: #4 LA Rams (11-7) at #2 Philadelphia (15-3) (3:00) | P by 7 | P 28-22
|
| AFC: #3 Baltimore (13-5) at #2 Buffalo (14-4) (6:30) | Buf by 3 | Buf 27-25
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 3/4 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 3/4 |
|
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| Playoffs - Conference Championships | |
|
| SUNDAY JANUARY 26 | PICK | SCORE
|
| NFC - #6 Washington (14-5) at #2 Philadelphia (16-3) (3:00) | P by 5 | P 55-23
|
| AFC - #2 Buffalo (15-4) at #1 Kansas City (16-2) (6:30) | K by 3 | K 32-29
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 2/2 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 1/2 |
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|
| Super Bowl LIX - at New Orleans, LA | |
|
| SUNDAY FEBRUARY 9 | PICK | SCORE
|
| Kansas City (17-2) vs. Philadelphia (17-3) (6:30) | P by 1 | P 40-22
|
| | |
|
| Correct winners: | 1/1 |
|
| Correct winner and within 8 points: | 0/1 |
|
NFL Team Rankings
| | Team | W | L | T | RATING | LW
|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 18 | 3 | 0 | 59.9
|
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 15 | 3 | 0 | 57.1
|
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 6 | 0 | 57.0
|
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 15 | 5 | 0 | 56.9
|
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 3 | 0 | 56.2
|
| 6 | Washington Commanders | 14 | 6 | 0 | 54.7
|
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 7 | 0 | 54.2
|
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 4 | 0 | 54.0
|
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 8 | 0 | 53.0
|
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.5
|
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.4
|
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 7 | 0 | 52.2
|
| 13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.9
|
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 51.7
|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 7 | 0 | 51.4
|
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.1
|
| 17 | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.6
|
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.8
|
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 11 | 0 | 48.4
|
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.1
|
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.4
|
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 9 | 0 | 47.3
|
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.1
|
| 24 | New York Jets | 5 | 12 | 0 | 46.1
|
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.7
|
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.4
|
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.2
|
| 28 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.5
|
| 29 | New York Giants | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.4
|
| 30 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 43.1
|
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.0
|
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 14 | 0 | 42.8
|
NFL Teams By Division
PF = Points for
PA = Points against
SS = Strength of schedule ranking (1 is toughest and 32 is weakest). SOS is
based on games played so far during the season, not the entire season schedule.
| | NFL 2024 | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC EAST(6) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 15 | 5 | 0 | 56.9 | 612 | 432 | 14
|
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.1 | 345 | 364 | 32
|
| 24 | New York Jets | 5 | 12 | 0 | 46.1 | 289 | 417 | 28
|
| 28 | New England Patriots | 4 | 13 | 0 | 43.5 | 338 | 404 | 29
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC NORTH(5) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 6 | 0 | 57.0 | 571 | 402 | 3
|
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 51.7 | 258 | 435 | 5
|
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 8 | 0 | 51.1 | 394 | 375 | 27
|
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.0 | 472 | 434 | 6
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC SOUTH(8) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 13 | Houston Texans | 11 | 8 | 0 | 51.9 | 418 | 407 | 18
|
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 9 | 0 | 47.3 | 377 | 427 | 31
|
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.2 | 320 | 435 | 30
|
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 14 | 0 | 42.8 | 311 | 460 | 17
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | AFC WEST(3) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 3 | 0 | 56.2 | 432 | 342 | 8
|
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.4 | 462 | 409 | 9
|
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11 | 7 | 0 | 52.2 | 309 | 434 | 24
|
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4 | 13 | 0 | 44.4 | 414 | 333 | 12
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC EAST(2) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 18 | 3 | 0 | 59.9 | 350 | 468 | 20
|
| 6 | Washington Commanders | 14 | 6 | 0 | 54.7 | 273 | 415 | 2
|
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 0 | 47.4 | 608 | 380 | 11
|
| 29 | New York Giants | 3 | 14 | 0 | 43.4 | 576 | 497 | 10
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC NORTH(1) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 15 | 3 | 0 | 57.1 | 470 | 360 | 16
|
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 7 | 0 | 54.2 | 441 | 359 | 4
|
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 4 | 0 | 54.0 | 310 | 370 | 22
|
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 12 | 0 | 47.1 | 595 | 387 | 13
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC SOUTH(7) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 52.5 | 341 | 534 | 23
|
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 9 | 0 | 48.8 | 522 | 408 | 25
|
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 12 | 0 | 45.7 | 338 | 398 | 26
|
| 30 | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 12 | 0 | 43.1 | 389 | 423 | 19
|
| | | | | | | | |
|
| | NFC WEST(4) | W | L | T | Rating | PF | PA | SS
|
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 8 | 0 | 53.0 | 375 | 368 | 1
|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 7 | 0 | 51.4 | 389 | 436 | 21
|
| 17 | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 9 | 0 | 50.6 | 416 | 423 | 15
|
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 11 | 0 | 48.4 | 400 | 379 | 7
|